ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Thursday 4 September 2025 12:15

Previous
106K
Revised
106K
Forecast
65K
Actual
54K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 54K against a forecast of 65K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 4 September 2025 12:15
65K
54K
Wednesday 30 July 2025 12:15
78K
104K
Wednesday 2 July 2025 12:15
95K
-33K
Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15
115K
37K
Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15
108K
62K
Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15
105K
155K
Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15
140K
77K
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change3.9%3.7%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.2%62.3%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change79K22K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.9%8.1%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.2%4.3%
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change46.446.5
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change50.356
ISM Services PMIBullish change50.152
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change69.969.2
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change55.454.6
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change229K237K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change2.4%3.3%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change1.6%1%
Challenger Job CutsBullish change62.075K85.979K
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-4.8%-1.3%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.357M7.181M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change43.443.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change47.151.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change4848.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change64.863.7
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change57.255.9
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change58.658.2
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change4.9%4.8%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.9%3.5%
Chicago PMIBearish change47.141.5
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.8%2.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.6%2.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.3%0.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-0.8%-0.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change3%3.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)2%2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change234K229K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bearish change2.1%2%

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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